Unfortunately benign neglect will not be adequate. In the October 2007, issue of Railway Age, the railroads report needing $148 billion dollars over the next 28 years just to meet the needs for freight. $135 billion is just for the 7 Class I roads.

This money just represents investment needed to continue to handle the same percentage of traffic that they do today.

“The study assumes little if any modal shift of freight transport” – David J Hunt lead partner of Cambridge Systematics. Cambridge Systematics did the study for the American Association of Railroads.

Hunt says that the railroads can fund $96 billion themselves ($3.4 billion/year) leaving a shortfall of $39 billion (1.4 billion/year).

The study assumes no growth in passenger travel., nor does it anticipate an increase in freight market share.

However, the study also does not anticipate the (possible) decline in coal traffic. In the same issue, coal for the week ending 15 September was 142,925 carloads out of 338,147 ( 42% ). The report does not report the actual miles traveled so it is difficult to judge actual impact on capacity. However, considering that coal travels in unit trains (which means it does not have to be switched in a yard along the way) I would think that the impact would be relatively lower than 42%.

BNSF and NS both have fairly good ability to keep Amtrak trains on-time … because they want to. UP and CSX doesn’t.

FYI John Snowe, currently in Bush the Lesser’s administration, used to run CSX.

UP and CSX are particularly finiky with rail passenger service for 2 reasons:

1) UP and CSX are enroaching. UP owns almost all rails in the western US, while BNSF owns only a few mainlines. CSX owns Norfolk Southern aka NS (I think) and has absorbed both Conrail and Seaboard System, all of which covers the eastern US. Which leaves Canadian National, Canadian Pacific, a handfull of branch line operators, and commuter rail.

2) All that recent job outsorcing has lead to a rise in imports, which has lead to a rise in freight-rail traffic. Soaring Gas prices have also made more companies ship by rail to kill two birds with one stone.

The result: freight congestion! Often, a passenger train on a host railroad will be stuck on a single track block with 2 approaching freight trains in both directions.

More rail infrastructure is needed. But there should also be more cooperation between freight and passenger rail.

UP, BNSF, and CSX are not consumer brands, therefore the general public have little concern about what they do, have very little understanding in regards to the benefits freight rail brings, and consequently less willing to provide government funding.

Passenger rail like Amtrak is a consumer brand and consumers have direct relationships with passenger rail operators. Voters are willing to spend tax dollars into passenger rail.

To prove the point about familiarity, most people can name passenger airlines but not cargo-only airlines.

If UP and freight rail operators are preceived as non-cooperative in getting more passenger rail, more money will go to light rail, BRT, and highways, which the freight railroads get absolutely zero benefit. If freight railroads are cooperative, they will be able to negotiate an arrangment where public monies can help to improve both passenger and freight trains.

On the other hand, trucking companies have no problem in getting more highway funding because they can argue, and that politicians understand, that highway expansions also help solo auto commuters who vote.

It is not that hard to get tax monies to help freight rail. It doesn’t make political sense for freight railroads to ask for public subsidy and refuse to fulfill public’s demand for more passenger rail at the same time.